Cash runway
How long until a biotech must raise again — the metric that predicts dilution.
Runway is how many quarters of cash a company has left at its current burn rate: liquidity (cash + marketable investments) divided by quarterly operating burn.
Why it matters more than the cash balance
A big cash pile means little if the company burns it fast. A short runway (under ~1 year) makes a dilutive raise nearly inevitable — often right when the stock is weak, which is the worst time for holders.
The link to dilution
Runway is a leading indicator: it tells you the dilution event is coming before the offering is filed. Pair it with the dilution history to see whether a company is a serial diluter.
How we use it
Runway feeds our distress score. Short runway + heavy past dilution + a falling price is the classic death-spiral profile.
Educational only — not financial advice.